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Ian Thomas

Ian Thomas Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Baltimore Ravens vs Carolina Panthers

Ian Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-109/-131).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

The Panthers are an enormous 13-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.

The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass game stats across the board.

Ian Thomas's ability to pick up extra yardage has been refined this season, compiling 10.67 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 4.00 rate last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Panthers have been the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 56.6% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 52.6 plays per game.

The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

Ian Thomas has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (33.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (44.3%).

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