Ian Thomas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Ian Thomas

TE · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Cleveland Browns · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Ian Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-110/-121).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 25.65 seconds per play.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Completion% in football (74.3%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (74.3%).
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has struggled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.17 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 10th-most in football.
The Carolina Panthers have been faced with a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers offensive line ranks as the worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.
Ian Thomas has been among the worst pass-game TEs since the start of last season, averaging a measly 13.0 yards per game while grading out in the 19th percentile among tight ends.
Ian Thomas has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL among tight ends, completing a mere 64.8% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 21st percentile.
Ian Thomas has been among the least effective receivers in the league among tight ends, averaging a measly 6.52 yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 21st percentile.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency versus TEs since the start of last season, giving up 6.88 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in the league.