Hunter Renfrow Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Hunter Renfrow

NFL · Player Props

Hunter Renfrow

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Green Bay Packers · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Hunter Renfrow Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-175/+145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -180 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The the Las Vegas Raiders offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass game metrics across the board.
With a stellar 74.2% Adjusted Completion% (86th percentile) since the start of last season, Hunter Renfrow ranks as one of the most sure-handed receivers in football when it comes to wide receivers.
Since the start of last season, the poor Packers pass defense has conceded a staggering 68.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 6th-worst rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders as the 8th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have only 123.6 offensive plays run: the fewest among all games this week.
The Las Vegas Raiders have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 51.8 plays per game.
Hunter Renfrow's 12.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 30.7.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Green Bay's unit has been excellent this year, projecting as the 6th-best in the NFL.

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