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Hunter Renfrow
NFL · Player Props
Hunter Renfrow
WR · Las Vegas Raiders
Receptions
Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 12, 2023 Updated Nov 27, 2023 3:26 AM UTC
NFL Props Hunter Renfrow Receptions

Hunter Renfrow Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -130.

Favors Over
  • The Raiders are a giant 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • The Raiders O-line ranks as the best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game stats across the board.
  • As it relates to safeties rushing the passer, Kansas City's safety corps has been terrible this year, profiling as the worst in the NFL.
Favors Under
  • At the present time, the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense in football (55.7% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Las Vegas Raiders.
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Raiders are forecasted by the predictive model to run just 63.4 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The Raiders have run the 4th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 53.7 plays per game.
  • Opposing teams teams have been wary to pass too much against the Chiefs, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 31.0 per game) this year.
  • With a RATE1-RATE2 point regression in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, Hunter Renfrow has been incorporated much less in his offense's pass attack.
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