Hunter Renfrow Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Hunter Renfrow

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 6:06 PM EST

Analysis

Hunter Renfrow Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.3% pass rate.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties grade out as the 10th-worst safety corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.64 seconds before the pass (8th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 6th-slowest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 29.05 seconds per snap.
Hunter Renfrow has been a less important option in his offense's air attack this season (15.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (21.2%).
Hunter Renfrow's play as a receiver has tailed off this year, totaling just 3.5 yards per game compared to 5.4 last year.
Hunter Renfrow's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 83.3% to 72.6%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64%) vs. wideouts this year (64.0%).