Hunter Renfrow Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Hunter Renfrow

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Hunter Renfrow Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Raiders as the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projections to see 128.2 offensive plays run: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
When talking about pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the Las Vegas Raiders profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.
With an excellent 73.2% Adjusted Completion% (84th percentile) since the start of last season, Hunter Renfrow has been among the most reliable receivers in football among WRs.

Favors Under

The 5th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Raiders this year (a lowly 53.0 per game on average).
Hunter Renfrow's 5.7% Target Rate this season represents a a meaningful drop-off in his passing game utilization over last season's 15.6% figure.
After accruing 32.0 air yards per game last season, Hunter Renfrow has significantly declined this season, currently boasting 15.0 per game.
Hunter Renfrow's 16.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year represents a an impressive decline in his pass-catching ability over last year's 36.0 figure.
Hunter Renfrow has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in football, averaging a mere 7.43 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 23rd percentile among wide receivers