Hunter Renfrow Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Hunter Renfrow

NFL · Player Props

Hunter Renfrow

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Hunter Renfrow Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders will be rolling out backup QB Jarrett Stidham this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Raiders are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-most in the league.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.19 seconds per snap.
Hunter Renfrow has been a much smaller piece of his team's pass attack this season (14.8% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (21.3%).
Hunter Renfrow has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (31.0 per game) than he did last season (50.0 per game).
Hunter Renfrow has put up substantially fewer receiving yards per game (33.0) this season than he did last season (61.0).

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