Hunter Renfrow Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Hunter Renfrow

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Hunter Renfrow Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+305/-547).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -462 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -547.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Hunter Renfrow to be a more integral piece of his team's pass attack near the goal line this week (16.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.1% in games he has played).
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has surrendered the 5th-most passing touchdowns in the league to WRs: 1.12 per game this year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties grade out as the 10th-worst safety corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.64 seconds before the pass (8th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 6th-slowest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 29.05 seconds per snap.
Hunter Renfrow has compiled far fewer air yards this year (25.0 per game) than he did last year (49.0 per game).
Hunter Renfrow's 29.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 43.7.
Hunter Renfrow's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 83.3% to 72.6%.
Hunter Renfrow ranks in the 1st percentile among WRs when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a lowly 0.00 per game.