Hunter Renfrow Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Hunter Renfrow

NFL · Player Props

Hunter Renfrow

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving TD

Las Vegas Raiders vs Houston Texans · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Hunter Renfrow Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+250/-350).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 9th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Hunter Renfrow to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing offense near the end zone this week (21.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (14.3% in games he has played).
Hunter Renfrow grades out in the 91st percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 0.41 per game.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line has allowed their QB 2.64 seconds before the pass (8th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Raiders are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-worst paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.78 seconds per play.
Hunter Renfrow's 35.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 43.7.
Hunter Renfrow's sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 83.3% to 71.0%.
The Houston Texans pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (59.4%) to WRs this year (59.4%).

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