Hunter Renfrow Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Hunter Renfrow

NFL · Player Props

Hunter Renfrow

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 11, 2022 12:10 AM UTC

Analysis

Hunter Renfrow Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+227/-354).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +262 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +227.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders are a massive 7-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The Las Vegas Raiders have called the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 45.8 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in football.
Hunter Renfrow ranks in the 91st percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 0.43 per game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Hunter Renfrow to be a much smaller piece of his offense's passing game near the end zone this week (21.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (27.0% in games he has played).
Hunter Renfrow's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 83.3% to 63.8%.
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks project as the 9th-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the NFL since the start of last season.

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