Hunter Renfrow Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Hunter Renfrow

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving TD

Tennessee Titans vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 21, 2022 5:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Hunter Renfrow Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+217/-333).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +234 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +217.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the NFL.
Hunter Renfrow ranks in the 90th percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 0.43 per game.
The Tennessee Titans defense has allowed the 3rd-most passing touchdowns in football to WRs: 1.26 per game since the start of last season.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line has given their QB 2.64 seconds before the pass (8th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Tennessee Titans defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 57.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Las Vegas Raiders have played in the most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.
THE BLITZ projects Hunter Renfrow to be a less important option in his offense's passing game near the end zone this week (21.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (27.0% in games he has played).
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
Hunter Renfrow's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 83.3% to 64.2%.