Hunter Renfrow Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Hunter Renfrow

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Hunter Renfrow Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+207/-313).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +224 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +207.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 129.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Hunter Renfrow has been among the most reliable receivers in the NFL, completing an impressive 82.5% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 99th percentile among WRs.
Hunter Renfrow ranks in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 0.47 per game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Hunter Renfrow to be a less important option in his team's passing offense near the goal line this week (21.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (28.7% in games he has played).
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has yielded the 4th-least touchdowns through the air in the league to WRs: 0.65 per game since the start of last season.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Las Vegas Raiders have used play action on a measly 16.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.