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Hunter Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+115/-145).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +140 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +115.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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With a 7-point advantage, the Patriots are a huge favorite in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on running than their typical game plan.In this week's contest, Hunter Henry is expected by our trusted projection set to rank in the 92nd percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.9 targets.Hunter Henry's 46.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 33.2.Hunter Henry checks in as one of the leading pass-game tight ends this year, averaging an excellent 3.9 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.Hunter Henry's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 68.4% to 76.1%.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The model projects the Patriots as the 11th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 55.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The New England Patriots have run the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 55.7 plays per game.Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Jets, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.7 per game) this year.In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Patriots profiles as the 4th-worst in the league this year.
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