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Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots

Hunter Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-167/+128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -162 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +128.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is suggested by the Patriots being a -6.5-point underdog in this game.

Opposing offenses have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in football.

This week, Hunter Henry is expected by the projection model to land in the 82nd percentile among tight ends with 4.6 targets.

Hunter Henry's 42.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 33.2.

With an exceptional 3.2 adjusted receptions per game (81st percentile) this year, Hunter Henry has been among the best pass-game tight ends in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Patriots as the 3rd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.1% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

With respect to a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.79 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Patriots as the 10th-slowest in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment.

The New England O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

This year, the fierce Jaguars defense has given up a meager 70.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 8th-smallest rate in the NFL.

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