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Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers

Hunter Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are a 6-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may suffer.

In this contest, Hunter Henry is expected by the projection model to finish in the 95th percentile among tight ends with 6.7 targets.

Hunter Henry's 45.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 33.2.

Hunter Henry's receiving performance has improved this season, totaling 4.5 adjusted receptions vs just 3.3 last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 58.4% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 9th-least pass-oriented team in football has been the New England Patriots.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have only 127.0 plays on offense called: the fewest out of all the games this week.

The New England offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.

As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Los Angeles's unit has been very good this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the league.

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