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Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Hunter Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -166 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are massive underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are projected by the projections to run 65.5 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week.

With an extraordinary 74.3% Route% (85th percentile) this year, Hunter Henry ranks as one of the tight ends with the biggest workloads in football.

The model projects Hunter Henry to accumulate 4.8 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 81st percentile when it comes to TEs.

With a terrific 3.1 adjusted catches per game (76th percentile) this year, Hunter Henry has been as one of the best TEs in the pass game in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Patriots rank as the 8th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 59.1% pass rate.

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being predicted in this game) usually lead to decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and higher run volume.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Buffalo Bills, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 31.7 per game) this year.

The New England Patriots O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Hunter Henry's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 72.5% to 65.7%.

More Hunter Henry Player Props

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