Hunter Henry Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Hunter Henry

NFL · Player Props

Hunter Henry

TE · New England Patriots

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Hunter Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+150/-200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -200 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New England Patriots will be rolling out backup QB Brian Hoyer this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Patriots are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to be a much bigger part of his team's pass attack this week (11.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (5.3% in games he has played).
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Completion% in football (75.3%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (75.3%).
The Green Bay Packers defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-least pass-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 56.6 plays per game.
Hunter Henry's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 69.6% to 61.8%.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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