Hunter Henry Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Hunter Henry

TE · New England Patriots

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 2:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Hunter Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+125/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 9th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 7th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to accumulate 4.0 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 77th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Hunter Henry's 24.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 34.8.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
The New England Patriots offensive line has allowed their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.