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Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Hunter Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-156).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -156.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 62.4% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 9th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to accumulate 3.7 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 78th percentile among tight ends.

Hunter Henry's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 67.4% to 71.6%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.9 plays per game.

Hunter Henry's 24.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 35.1.

Hunter Henry's pass-catching performance diminished this season, notching a measly 2.1 yards per game vs 3.1 last season.

The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 2nd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

The New England Patriots O-line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

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