Hunter Henry Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Hunter Henry

NFL · Player Props

Hunter Henry

TE · New England Patriots

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Hunter Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+127/-172).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to total 4.5 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among tight ends.
Hunter Henry's 35.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 88th percentile for tight ends.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has surrendered the 4th-highest Completion% in the league (77.8%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (77.8%).

Favors Under

The Patriots rank as the 8th-least pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 60.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 58.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 9th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 60.7 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins safeties grade out as the 5th-best collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The New England Patriots O-line has allowed their QB just 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

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