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Hunter Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-114/-114).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Patriots are a 6-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may suffer.In this contest, Hunter Henry is expected by the projection model to finish in the 95th percentile among tight ends with 6.7 targets.When talking about air yards, Hunter Henry ranks in the towering 94th percentile among tight ends this year, accumulating a striking 47.0 per game.Hunter Henry's 45.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 33.2.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 58.4% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 9th-least pass-oriented team in football has been the New England Patriots.Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have only 127.0 plays on offense called: the fewest out of all the games this week.The New England offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.This year, the strong Chargers defense has surrendered a paltry 39.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing tight ends: the 3rd-fewest in the NFL.This year, the imposing Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has given up the 2nd-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing TEs: a paltry 3.6 YAC.
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