Hunter Henry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Hunter Henry

NFL · Player Props

Hunter Henry

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Hunter Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have 134.8 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week.
The New England Patriots have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 64.8 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
Our trusted projections expect Hunter Henry to notch 5.3 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Hunter Henry has totaled quite a few more air yards this year (51.0 per game) than he did last year (28.0 per game).

Favors Under

The model projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) typically mean worse passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.
The New England Patriots offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Hunter Henry's 3.12 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year marks a a significant regression in his efficiency in the open field over last year's 4.9% figure.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has conceded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (57.4%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (57.4%).

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