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Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots

Hunter Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-140/+100).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are a giant 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

The model projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The projections expect this game to see the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The predictive model expects Hunter Henry to notch 5.5 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among TEs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Hunter Henry's pass-catching effectiveness has declined this year, notching a mere 7.33 yards-per-target vs a 8.54 mark last year.

Hunter Henry's ability to grind out extra yardage has declined this year, notching a measly 3.23 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.85 rate last year.

The Cowboys pass defense has shown good efficiency against TEs since the start of last season, conceding 5.97 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-fewest in the league.

The Cowboys safeties grade out as the 6th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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