Hunter Henry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Hunter Henry

NFL · Player Props

Hunter Henry

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Hunter Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-140/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a giant 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The model projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to see the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The predictive model expects Hunter Henry to notch 5.5 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

Hunter Henry's pass-catching effectiveness has declined this year, notching a mere 7.33 yards-per-target vs a 8.54 mark last year.
Hunter Henry's ability to grind out extra yardage has declined this year, notching a measly 3.23 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.85 rate last year.
The Cowboys pass defense has shown good efficiency against TEs since the start of last season, conceding 5.97 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-fewest in the league.
The Cowboys safeties grade out as the 6th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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