Hunter Henry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Hunter Henry

NFL · Player Props

Hunter Henry

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs New England Patriots · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Hunter Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 32.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 31.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots have been the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 66.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Hunter Henry has run a route on 75.0% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 86th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to garner 5.1 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.
Hunter Henry has notched a whopping 32.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 86th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 55.6 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Hunter Henry's talent in grinding out extra yardage have worsened this season, compiling a mere 3.36 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.85 figure last season.
The New York Jets linebackers project as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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