Hunter Henry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Hunter Henry

NFL · Player Props

Hunter Henry

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 8, 2023 12:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Hunter Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-137/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's line implies a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
The leading projections forecast the New England Patriots offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 26.77 seconds per play.
Our trusted projections expect Hunter Henry to notch 5.4 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among tight ends.
After averaging 28.0 air yards per game last season, Hunter Henry has undergone big improvement this season, now sitting at 39.0 per game.
Hunter Henry's 30.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 82nd percentile for TEs.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Patriots to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.8% pass rate.
Hunter Henry's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 72.5% to 65.2%.
Hunter Henry's pass-game effectiveness has declined this season, accumulating a measly 6.44 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.54 mark last season.
Hunter Henry's 2.59 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season marks a remarkable regression in his efficiency in the open field over last season's 4.9% figure.
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers profile as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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