Hunter Henry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Hunter Henry

NFL · Player Props

Hunter Henry

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs New England Patriots · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Hunter Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-119/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -119.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 2nd-quickest paced offense in the league (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the New England Patriots.
In this game, Hunter Henry is predicted by the model to position himself in the 80th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.5 targets.
Hunter Henry has accumulated many more air yards this year (43.0 per game) than he did last year (28.0 per game).
Hunter Henry's 32.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 26.8.
The New York Giants pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing TEs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 6.63 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in football.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the Patriots, who are favored by 4.5 points.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New England Patriots to pass on 53.8% of their plays: the 7th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The Patriots O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Hunter Henry's sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 72.5% to 65.9%.
Hunter Henry's 6.6 adjusted yards per target this season marks a noteable decline in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 8.5 rate.

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