Hunter Henry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Hunter Henry

NFL · Player Props

Hunter Henry

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Hunter Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 41.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a big 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.83 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to notch 6.1 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

Hunter Henry has notched far fewer air yards this year (27.0 per game) than he did last year (46.0 per game).
Hunter Henry's 25.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 34.8.
Hunter Henry has compiled quite a few less receiving yards per game (30.0) this season than he did last season (39.0).
The Buffalo Bills defense has given up the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 34.0) versus TEs this year.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has displayed good efficiency versus TEs this year, conceding 5.38 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in the NFL.

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