Hunter Henry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Hunter Henry

NFL · Player Props

Hunter Henry

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Hunter Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (+100/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 23.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the New York Jets defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to notch 3.7 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 75th percentile among tight ends.
Hunter Henry has been among the most effective receivers in the league among TEs, averaging a terrific 8.91 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 82nd percentile.
Hunter Henry's ability to grind out extra yardage has gotten better this season, totaling 4.95 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs just 2.48 mark last season.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 7th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 55.3 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Hunter Henry has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (26.0 per game) than he did last season (46.0 per game).

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