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Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 9

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts

Hunter Henry Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+369/-745).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +373 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +369.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.53 seconds per snap.

Hunter Henry has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 17.9% this year, which places him in the 87th percentile among TEs.

The Indianapolis Colts defense has surrendered the 7th-most touchdowns through the air in the league to tight ends: 0.50 per game this year.

The Indianapolis Colts linebackers project as the 7th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

The New England Patriots have gone up against a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Patriots are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in football.

Hunter Henry has put up quite a few less air yards this season (25.0 per game) than he did last season (46.0 per game).

Hunter Henry's 23.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 35.1.

More Hunter Henry Player Props

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