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Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 13

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Hunter Henry Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+408/-885).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +432 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +408.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 9th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Hunter Henry has been a big part of his team's offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 15.8% this year, which places him in the 85th percentile among TEs.

Hunter Henry's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 67.4% to 71.6%.

The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.9 plays per game.

Hunter Henry has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (25.0 per game) than he did last year (46.0 per game).

Hunter Henry's 24.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 35.1.

The Buffalo Bills defense has given up the least TDs through the air in the league to tight ends: 0.00 per game this year.

The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 2nd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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