My Account Log Out

reorder

Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 12

Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots

Hunter Henry Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+433/-983).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +434 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +433.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Hunter Henry has been a key part of his team's offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 14.7% this year, which places him in the 81st percentile among tight ends.

Hunter Henry's receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Completion% rising from 69.6% to 73.3%.

The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has allowed the 8th-highest Completion% in football (76.3%) vs. tight ends this year (76.3%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New England Patriots have run the 6th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 55.6 plays per game.

Hunter Henry has posted significantly fewer air yards this season (23.0 per game) than he did last season (46.0 per game).

Hunter Henry's 23.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 35.1.

The New England Patriots offensive line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on just 2.6% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

More Hunter Henry Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™