Hunter Henry Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Hunter Henry

NFL · Player Props

Hunter Henry

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving TD

New England Patriots vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Hunter Henry Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+387/-805).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +394 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +387.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the New York Jets defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
Hunter Henry has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 16.1% this year, which ranks in the 85th percentile among tight ends.
The New York Jets linebackers rank as the 6th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The New England Patriots have gone up against a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 55.3 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Hunter Henry has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (26.0 per game) than he did last season (46.0 per game).
Hunter Henry's 24.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 35.1.

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