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Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 11

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

 
 
 
Hunter Henry Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+387/-805).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +394 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +387.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the New York Jets defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
  • Hunter Henry has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 16.1% this year, which ranks in the 85th percentile among tight ends.
  • The New York Jets linebackers rank as the 6th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
  • The New England Patriots have gone up against a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Patriots are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
  • The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 55.3 plays per game.
  • The weather forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
  • Hunter Henry has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (26.0 per game) than he did last season (46.0 per game).
  • Hunter Henry's 24.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 35.1.

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