Hunter Henry Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Hunter Henry

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving TD

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Hunter Henry Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+260/-430).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -417 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -430.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the league.
Hunter Henry has been an integral part of his team's offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 23.4% since the start of last season, which places him in the 96th percentile among tight ends.
Hunter Henry has accumulated a colossal 46.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 92nd percentile among TEs.
Hunter Henry's 35.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 88th percentile for tight ends.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 58.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 9th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 60.7 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins safeties grade out as the 5th-best collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The New England Patriots O-line has allowed their QB just 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season.