Hayden Hurst Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Hayden Hurst

TE · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Houston Texans · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Hayden Hurst Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Panthers offense to tilt 5.6% more towards the passing attack than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.
This game's line suggests a throwing game script for the Panthers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to see 132.3 total plays called: the 3rd-most on the slate this week.
The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Carolina Panthers this year (a colossal 64.0 per game on average).
The Houston Texans defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (38.5 per game) this year.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Carolina Panthers to pass on 56.9% of their chances: the 11th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point drop-off in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, Hayden Hurst has been relied on much less in his offense's passing attack.
When talking about pass-blocking (and the impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Carolina Panthers grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year.
Hayden Hurst has accrued many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (20.0) this year than he did last year (33.0).
Hayden Hurst's 65.7% Adjusted Catch% this year signifies a noteable diminishment in his pass-catching ability over last year's 79.1% rate.