Hayden Hurst Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Hayden Hurst

NFL · Player Props

Hayden Hurst

TE · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 11:06 PM EST

Analysis

Hayden Hurst Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Panthers are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Hayden Hurst to accrue 4.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 80th percentile among tight ends.
Hayden Hurst has been an integral part of his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 15.1% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 87th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 10th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 54.0 plays per game.
Hayden Hurst's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 79.1% to 69.3%.
The New Orleans Saints defense has conceded the least receiving yards per game in the league (just 26.0) versus TEs since the start of last season.

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