Hayden Hurst Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Hayden Hurst

NFL · Player Props

Hayden Hurst

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 4:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Hayden Hurst Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 66.1% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 42.3 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
Hayden Hurst has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (74.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (44.9%).
THE BLITZ projects Hayden Hurst to total 4.7 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among TEs.
Hayden Hurst has notched a monstrous 22.0 air yards per game this year: 79th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 4th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.60 seconds per play.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Hayden Hurst has been among the bottom TEs in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.43 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 19th percentile.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.29 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in football.

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