Hayden Hurst Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Hayden Hurst

NFL · Player Props

Hayden Hurst

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 29, 2022 11:40 PM UTC

Analysis

Hayden Hurst Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (+110/-151).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -151.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-most pass-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.8% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.
Hayden Hurst has gone out for fewer passes this year (73.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (44.9%).
THE BLITZ projects Hayden Hurst to accrue 4.1 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among TEs.
Hayden Hurst has accounted for a colossal 8.9% of his offense's air yards this year: 81st percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 120.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Hayden Hurst's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 80.1% to 74.5%.
Hayden Hurst's receiving efficiency has declined this year, accumulating a mere 5.17 yards-per-target compared to a 7.17 mark last year.

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