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Hayden Hurst Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-110/-110).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.THE BLITZ projects Hayden Hurst to notch 4.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among tight ends.THE BLITZ projects Hayden Hurst to be much more involved in his offense's air attack this week (14.2% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (9.1% in games he has played).Hayden Hurst has accounted for a whopping 12.5% of his offense's air yards this year: 84th percentile among tight ends.Hayden Hurst has been among the most reliable receivers in football among tight ends, completing an impressive 80.4% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 80th percentile.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 7th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.Hayden Hurst's pass-catching efficiency has tailed off this season, totaling just 5.58 yards-per-target vs a 7.17 rate last season.Hayden Hurst has been among the worst TEs in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.70 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 21st percentile.
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