Hayden Hurst Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Hayden Hurst

NFL · Player Props

Hayden Hurst

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Hayden Hurst Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 38.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 66.8% pass rate.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 61.3 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 8th-most in football.
Hayden Hurst has run fewer routes this year (73.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (44.9%).
THE BLITZ projects Hayden Hurst to accrue 5.5 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 86th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a huge 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Hayden Hurst's ability to pick up extra yardage has tailed off this year, averaging a mere 3.05 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.08 mark last year.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has conceded the 9th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (69.3%) versus TEs this year (69.3%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties profile as the 8th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.

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