Hayden Hurst Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Hayden Hurst

NFL · Player Props

Hayden Hurst

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Hayden Hurst Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+278/-475).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -438 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -475.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing offenses have averaged 42.3 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
Hayden Hurst has been a key part of his team's pass game near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 15.4% this year, which ranks him in the 86th percentile among TEs.
Hayden Hurst has notched a monstrous 22.0 air yards per game this year: 79th percentile among tight ends.
Hayden Hurst's 26.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 16.6.
Hayden Hurst has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the league among tight ends, hauling in a stellar 79.6% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 78th percentile.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 4th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.60 seconds per play.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has allowed the 7th-least TDs through the air in football to TEs: 0.17 per game this year.
The Atlanta Falcons safeties grade out as the 8th-best safety corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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