Hayden Hurst Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Hayden Hurst

NFL · Player Props

Hayden Hurst

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Hayden Hurst Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+247/-399).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +288 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +247.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 60.9 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 40.8 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.
Hayden Hurst has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 13.0% this year, which places him in the 77th percentile among tight ends.
Hayden Hurst has accumulated quite a few more air yards this year (27.0 per game) than he did last year (19.0 per game).
Hayden Hurst's 28.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 16.6.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Tennessee Titans safeties profile as the 4th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has given their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

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