Hayden Hurst Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Hayden Hurst

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Hayden Hurst Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+376/-766).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +417 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +376.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Hayden Hurst has earned a colossal 7.2% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 76th percentile among tight ends.
Hayden Hurst has been among the best possession receivers in football among tight ends, catching a stellar 80.1% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 87th percentile.
Hayden Hurst ranks in the 77th percentile among TEs as it relates to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 0.25 per game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties rank as the 3rd-worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 7th-most sluggish paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.80 seconds per play.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has yielded the 6th-least passing TDs in football to tight ends: 0.24 per game since the start of last season.