Harrison Bryant Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Harrison Bryant

TE · Cleveland Browns

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Harrison Bryant Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-167/+128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +136 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -167.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing attack performance when facing better conditions in this week's game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Completion% in the league (73.6%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (73.6%).
The Atlanta Falcons linebackers profile as the 6th-worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Harrison Bryant's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 77.5% to 61.6%.
The Atlanta Falcons defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.