Harrison Bryant Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Harrison Bryant

TE · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Harrison Bryant Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-119/-121).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing attack performance when facing better conditions in this week's game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Harrison Bryant has accounted for a whopping 13.9% of his offense's air yards this year: 93rd percentile among tight ends.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Completion% in the league (73.6%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (73.6%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Harrison Bryant's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 77.5% to 61.6%.
Harrison Bryant's pass-catching efficiency has declined this year, totaling just 7.53 yards-per-target vs a 8.54 rate last year.
Harrison Bryant has been among the weakest TEs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 4.08 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 22nd percentile.