Gus Edwards Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Gus Edwards

NFL · Player Props

Gus Edwards

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Detroit Lions · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Gus Edwards Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 42.5 (+105/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's spread indicates a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3 points.
The model projects the Ravens as the most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The projections expect Gus Edwards to earn 13.7 rush attempts in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to RBs.
Out of all RBs, Gus Edwards grades out in the 76th percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 35.2% of the workload in his offense's running game.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens offensive approach to lean 2.2% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
Right now, the 9th-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Ravens.
Gus Edwards's 3.8 adjusted yards per carry this season marks a a substantial reduction in his rushing ability over last season's 4.8 rate.
Gus Edwards's 2.46 yards-after-contact this year illustrates a a material decrease in his rushing skills over last year's 3.64 mark.
Opposing squads have run for the fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 60.0 per game) vs. the Lions defense this year.

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