Gus Edwards Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Gus Edwards

NFL · Player Props

Gus Edwards

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 4:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Gus Edwards Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 49.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 53.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens are a massive 7.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 50.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Gus Edwards to accrue 15.9 carries in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among running backs.
Gus Edwards's running effectiveness (4.88 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football since the start of last season (81st percentile among RBs).

Favors Under

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Indianapolis Colts defense boasts the 7th-best efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, yielding just 4.33 yards-per-carry.
The Indianapolis Colts defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-best DT corps in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

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