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Gus Edwards

Gus Edwards Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 2

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens

Gus Edwards Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-129/-106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 37.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -106.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Ravens have been the 7th-most run-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 44.9% run rate.

Gus Edwards's running effectiveness (4.74 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football since the start of last season (75th percentile among running backs).

Gus Edwards has been among the top RBs in the NFL at generating extra ground yardage, averaging an impressive 3.54 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 89th percentile.

The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers grade out as the worst group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.22 seconds per snap.

The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Opposing offenses have run for the 6th-least yards in the league (just 106 per game) against the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season.

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