Gus Edwards Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Gus Edwards

NFL · Player Props

Gus Edwards

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Gus Edwards Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the 2nd-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 49.9% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see 130.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most among all games this week.
With an impressive rate of 55.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (83rd percentile), Gus Edwards rates among the best pure rushers in football this year.
With a remarkable total of 4.51 adjusted yards per carry (76th percentile), Gus Edwards stands as one of the best pure rushers in the league this year.

Favors Under

The Baltimore Ravens feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 3.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Our trusted projections expect Gus Edwards to be a much smaller piece of his offense's run game this week (26.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (37.0% in games he has played).
This year, the porous Browns run defense has been gouged for a whopping 3.67 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition's run game: the 29th-largest rate in the NFL.
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Cleveland's group of DTs has been terrific this year, grading out as the 6th-best in the league.

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