Gus Edwards Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Gus Edwards

NFL · Player Props

Gus Edwards

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Gus Edwards Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (+106/-141).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 37.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -141.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 45.8% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Gus Edwards's running efficiency (4.87 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (78th percentile among RBs).
Gus Edwards has been among the best RBs in the league at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging a terrific 3.64 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 92nd percentile.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a big 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Ravens to run the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Gus Edwards to be a much smaller piece of his offense's run game this week (22.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (32.7% in games he has played).
Opposing teams have run for the 5th-least yards in the league (just 100 per game) against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.

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