Gus Edwards Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Gus Edwards

NFL · Player Props

Gus Edwards

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Gus Edwards Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (+109/-143).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 36.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 38.5 @ +109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens are a heavy 13-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 8th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Gus Edwards has garnered 38.6% of his team's rush attempts this year, putting him in the 80th percentile among running backs.
Gus Edwards has been among the top running backs in the league at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging a stellar 4.22 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 97th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has produced the 9th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering just 4.32 yards-per-carry.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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